Dear Friends,
Be Well.
David
The Artificial Intelligence of Geoengineering
Chaos theory proposes that a butterfly flapping
its wings in Brazil could cause a hurricane in Texas. Complexity theory
compounds the chaos by adding the quantum-like effects of, for example, genome
changes in the butterfly to the conflictions of supercomputer models. Now,
geoengineers want to multiply the complexity with politics. The result is an
extreme form of artificial intelligence.
Gaia is complicated. From stratospheric
currents to undersea rivers – and from plankton to palm tree emissions and
sequestrations – quantifying, qualifying and calibrating planetary systems is
at least as challenging as understanding genes or neurons. Despite decades of
modeling, we are no more likely to predict next month’s best picnic day than we
are to anticipate the proclivities of our DNA or to trace a memory in our cranium.
Frustratingly, we have learned to map and manipulate genomes, geographies and
memories, but we can’t control the consequences.
The distinction between accurate manipulation
and accurate modeling is vital. Scientists and governments do need a much better
understanding of what we are doing to ourselves. Reducing GHG emissions is
complicated. Not reducing emissions is more complicated. Moving perhaps a
billion people from coastal plains to higher ground will be complicated.
Responding to extreme hydro-thermal events (floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc.)
will be incredibly difficult. Sorting out correctly which crops can grow where
around the planet will be hugely critical and hugely complex. That all of these
decisions will also be political compounds the problem. Every political opinion
will claim “sound science” as its basis. As we have seen through Copenhagen,
Cancun, Durban and Doha, truth and transparency are already the victims of
irresponsible climate change negotiations. Now, geoengineers are saying that
they can help governments address climate change by manipulating planetary
systems. This increases the complexity by several orders of magnitude and
renders the politics of climate governance still more opaque.
To read the full Communiqué, please download
the pdf.
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Artificial Intelligence of Geoengineering Governance_Communiqué # 109
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Related Issues:
Climate & Geoengineering
International Governance
Related Fora:
Climate: UNFCCC, IPCC
Featured on fora:
Climate: UNFCCC, IPCC
Featured on issues:
Climate & Geoengineering
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