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Saturday, July 3, 2010

July 2 - Oil leak's spread predicted by simulation‏

Dear Friends,


Click/paste the link if you can't access the links/video.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_environment/10492086.stm


Be Well.


David

Oil leak's spread predicted by simulation

Page last updated at 14:34 GMT, Friday, 2 July 2010 15:34 UK

By Jon Stewart
Science reporter, BBC News, California

Video courtesy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research

Detailed simulations of the Gulf of Mexico oil leak show that crude is likely to start spreading into the Atlantic Ocean soon.

Once oil becomes caught in the Gulf of Mexico's fast moving Loop Current, it could be carried thousands of miles, around Florida, up the Atlantic coast of the US, and then out into the open ocean.

An animation by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) suggests that concentrations of oil in the water south of Florida will start to become detectable around 70 to 90 days after a leak starts. The Deepwater Horizon rig sank on the 22nd April.

The animation, given to the BBC World Service's Science in Action programme, is based on a computer model of ocean currents and eddies, and assumes that conditions will be similar to those found in a typical year.

Continue reading the main story

At some time in the next six months it's highly highly likely that it will escape from the Gulf

Synte Peacock NCAR

"In the Atlantic Ocean there is a Western Boundary Current System, and the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current is part of this system," explains NCAR scientist Synte Peacock.

"So what happens is the current comes up through the Yucatan [Channel, the strait between Mexico and Cuba], and it does a clockwise loop within the gulf, and then shoots out and joins the Gulf Stream proper.

"So when something in the gulf gets caught up within that current, it can get out of there."

So with that definitely happen? Dr Peacock says: "At some time in the next six months it's highly highly likely that it will escape from the Gulf."

The Atlantic Ocean Gulf Stream carries water towards Europe, but the simulations show it is unlikely that oil will be detected that far away.

"Even a year after the spill start date, in our simulations we don't see any detectable quantities of oil hitting Europe," says Dr Peacock.

"It's very diluted within the Atlantic Ocean."

'Food colouring'

To create the dramatic video, the scientists modelled what would happen if they were to release a coloured tracer dye into the water at the site of the leak.

A boat pulls absorbent materials along the surface of the Gulf of  Mexico among large streaks of oil (Image: AP) The situation in the gulf is worse than that on which the simulation is based

"It's like a food colouring. You inject it into the ocean and watch it disperse," explains Dr Peacock.

The virtual dye then shows the path that the water - and therefore the oil - could take.

The researchers repeated the experiment several times, using slightly different scenarios, to arrive at a likely spread pattern for the oil.

There are still some aspects to the Gulf of Mexico leak, and the behaviour of oil released at great depth, which are not fully understood.

The scientists say that could have an influence on the accuracy of the model.

"Oil is a little bit different, for several reasons; it undergoes a number of transformations," says Synte Peacock.

"There is a lot of evaporation in the first few hours, so it changes form.

"People are also skimming it like crazy, and trying to contain it as it comes up from the flow head. So it's not a perfect analogy by any means, but it's the closest thing we have right now."

The model assumes an oil leak lasting just 60 days, so already the reality is worse than the model scenario.

The eventual outcome will be complicated, as the southern US heads further into hurricane season. The scientists are now trying to add simulations of storms' possible effects to the model.

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How to Digitally Record/Video a UFO sighting:


Como registar digitalmente ou gravar um vídeo de um avistamento de um UFO:




Stabilize the camera on a tripod. If there is no tripod, then set it on top of a stable, flat surface. If that is not possible lean against a wall to stabilize your body and prevent the camera from filming in a shaky, unsteady manner.

Estabilize a camera com um tripé. Se não tiver um tripé, então coloque-a em cima de uma superfície estável. Se não for possível, então encoste-se a uma parede para estabilizar o corpo e evitar que a camera registe de maneira tremida e instável.

Provide visual reference points for comparison. This includes the horizon, treetops, lampposts, houses, and geographical landmarks (i.e., Horsetooth Reservoir, Mt. Adams, etc.) Provide this in the video whenever is appropriate and doesn’t detract from what your focus is, the UFO.

Forneça pontos visuais de referência para comparação. Isso inclui o horizonte, cimo das árvores, postes de iluminação, pontos de referência geográficos (como o Reservatório de Horsetooth, Mone Adams, etc) Forneça esses pontos no vídeo sempre que for apropriado e não se distraia do que é o seu foco, o UFO/a Nave.

Narrate your videotape. Provide details of the date, time, location, and direction (N,S,E,W) you are looking in. Provide your observations on the weather, including approximate temperature, windspeed, any visible cloud cover or noticeable weather anomalies or events. Narrate on the shape, size, color, movements, approximate altitude of the UFO, etc and what it appears to be doing. Also include any unusual physical, psychological or emotional sensations you might have. Narrate any visual reference points on camera so they correlate with what the viewer will see, and thereby will be better able to understand.

Faça a narração do vídeo. Forneça pormenores sobre a data, hora, local e direcção (Norte, Sul, Este, Oeste) que está a observar. Faça observações sobre as condições atmosféricas, incluindo a temperatura aproximada, velocidade do vento, quantidade de nuvens, anomalias ou acontecimentos meteorológicos evidentes. Descreva a forma, o tamanho, a cor, os movimentos, a altitude aproximada onde se encontra o UFO/nave, etc e o que aparenta estar a fazer. Inclua também quaisquer aspectos pouco habituais de sensações físicas, psicológicas ou emocionais que possa ter. Faça a narração de todos os pontos de referência visual que o espectador irá ver e que, deste modo, será capaz de compreender melhor.

Be persistent and consistent. Return to the scene to videotape and record at this same location. If you have been successful once, the UFO sightings may be occurring in this region regularly, perhaps for specific reasons unknown, and you may be successful again. You may also wish to return to the same location at a different time of day (daylight hours) for better orientation and reference. Film just a minute or two under “normal” circumstances for comparison. Write down what you remember immediately after. As soon as you are done recording the experience/event, immediately write down your impressions, memories, thoughts, emotions, etc. so it is on the record in writing. If there were other witnesses, have them independently record their own impressions, thoughts, etc. Include in this exercise any drawings, sketches, or diagrams. Make sure you date and sign your documentation.

Seja persistente e não contraditório. Volte ao local da cena e registe o mesmo local. Se foi bem sucedido uma vez, pode ser que nessa região ocorram avistamentos de UFOs/naves com regularidade, talvez por razões específicas desconhecidas, e talvez possa ser novamente bem sucedido. Pode também desejar voltar ao mesmo lugar a horas diferentes do dia (durante as horas de luz)para ter uma orientação e referência melhor. Filme apenas um ,inuto ou dois em circunstâncias “normais” para ter um termo de comparação. Escreva tudo o que viu imediatamente após o acontecimento. Logo após ter feito o registo da experiência/acontecimento, escreva imediatamente as impressões, memórias, pensamentos, emoções, etc para que fiquem registadas por escrito. Se houver outras testemunhas, peça-lhes para registar independentemente as suas próprias impressões, pensamentos, etc. Inclua quaisquer desenhos, esbolos, diagramas. Certifique-se que data e assina o seu documento/testemunho.

Always be prepared. Have a digital camera or better yet a video camera with you, charged and ready to go, at all times. Make sure you know how to use your camera (and your cell phone video/photo camera) quickly and properly. These events can occur suddenly, unexpectedly, and often quite randomly, so you will need to be prepared.

Esteja sempre preparado, Tenha sempre uma camera digital, melhor ainda, uma camera vídeo consigo, carregada e pronta a usar sempre que necessário. Certifique-se que sabe como lidar com a sua camera (ou com o seu celular/camera fotográfica) rápida e adequadamente. Esses acontecimentos podem acontecer súbita e inesperadamente e, por vezes, acidentalmente, por isso, necessita estar preparado.

Look up. Be prepared. Report. Share.

Olhe para cima, Esteja preparado, Relate, Partilhe.

MUFON.COM

ESOTERIC



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