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Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Dec. 22 - A Closer Look at Global Warming (Part 1)

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Be Well.


A Closer Look at Global Warming (Part 1)

By George E. Bushell

Sunspot values from:
While looking at some old copies of Life magazine in an antique store in the spring of 2008, I came across a very interesting article from August 1956 about the fear of global warming. It reviewed many possible causes for the phenomenon, including increased levels of CO2. There seems to be nothing new today that goes beyond this 1956 article.

The most interesting possible cause presented was the sunspot cycle. It described the 11-year cycle commonly referred to today. However, it also mentioned that both global weather variations and sunspots also follow a longer cycle where sunspots shut down completely for a few years at the end of this lengthy cycle. (The mean cycle length over the last 400-year sunspot history seems to be about 95 years). The article also suggested that, within this 95-year cycle, there are more sub-cycles: increased sunspot activity with some increased global warming followed by decreased sunspot activity with some global cooling.

The summer of 2008 was cool and moist and the summer of 2009 was, for the most part, even more so, especially in Eastern Canada. This is not that unexpected as the earth has actually been cooling since 2005—not warming as it did in the previous two decades—according to the Climatic Research Unit in the U.K. Sunspots have also been decreasing since the last maximum was reached in about 2003 and are now at their lowest level in 100 years. Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft have also shown that the sun's brightness has dimmed by 0.02 percent at visible wavelengths and a whopping 6 percent at extreme UV wavelengths since the second last solar minimum of 1996-7. Radio telescopes are now recording the dimmest “radio sun” since 1955.

But global CO2 concentrations have continued to rise according to National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s measurement site at Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Thus, there appears to be a negative relationship between CO2 levels and global temperature and a positive correlation between sunspot numbers/sun strength and global cooling. If CO2 were actually the dominant cause of global warming and sunspots accounted for only 20 percent of recent global temperature increases, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claims, global cooling should not have started in 2005 because mean monthly CO2 levels have not stopped rising.

As we are now at the end of a 95-year cycle, we are most likely going to have 25-50 years of lower than average sunspot activity, which means some global cooling. However, if sunspots do not return at all for an extended period as was the case in the 1600s during the Maunder Minimum when the Thames River froze every winter, people skated on the canals of Holland, and snow stayed on the ground for about 3 months each winter in these countries, we could have another Little Ice Age.

In fact, the first London Thames Frost Fair was held in 1607. Some authors, such as Steven Stol in the November 2009 edition of Harper Magazine, blame the Little Ice Age on the effects of the Black Plague. That is, the reduction of up to 40 percent of European populations as a result of this disaster caused much of the cultivated land to return to forests and grassland, which absorbed considerable CO2 and caused global cooling. While this event likely did have some effect on temperature, it should be noted that cultivated land still absorbs considerable CO2 and that the Black Plague peaked in 1350 although the worst of the Little Ice Age occurred from 1600 to 1675 during which time sunspot activity nearly bottomed out completely.

What about greenhouse gases? As noted in the Scientific American of July 2004, atmospheric methane gas remains in minuscule concentrations of only about 1.7 ppm, CO2 is roughly 220 times as concentrated at the planet's surface (although, still at a very low 0.038 percent), while water vapour is a whopping 6,000 times as plentiful. Surely, the sun’s effect on atmospheric water vapour plays a much stronger role in global temperature variation than does CO2.

Furthermore, Ian Clark, Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Ottawa, gave a presentation in March 2009 in which he showed that most of our recent global warming is not the result of increased CO2. In fact, after many years of studying Arctic ice cores, he concluded that CO2 levels, for the most part, follow global climate change instead of causing it.

There does not appear to be any direct evidence that CO2 has caused most of the global warming we have witnessed during the last two decades. Most global warming advocates simply presume that CO2 is the major cause because it is technically a greenhouse gas, and consequently build computer models with this assumption included in the code. They then make hundreds of computer runs that show the detrimental effects of higher concentrations of CO2 and conclude they have proven that CO2 is the cause of global warming and will wreak worldwide havoc.

However, tests have shown that increasing the level of carbon dioxide in a greenhouse to 550 ppm will accelerate plant growth by 30- 40 percent. (The mean level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is around 380 ppm or 0.038 percent while oxygen is at 20.95 percent). CO2 is a beneficial gas that stimulates plant growth—it is not a detrimental substance like acid rain, mercury, lead, and other real pollutants. In fact, CO2 is at its second lowest level ever—it was only at a lower level during the Carboniferous period about 300 million years ago.

Part 2 of this article in next week’s Epoch Times discusses melting glaciers and ice sheets, long-term weather forecasting, and political support for CO2 reduction.

George Bushell ( is an Ottawa-based retired operational researcher who has studied meteorology, climatology, and glaciology. He currently serves on the National Capital Commission’s Greenbelt Master Plan Advisory Committee.

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How to Digitally Record/Video a UFO sighting:

Como registar digitalmente ou gravar um vídeo de um avistamento de um UFO:

Stabilize the camera on a tripod. If there is no tripod, then set it on top of a stable, flat surface. If that is not possible lean against a wall to stabilize your body and prevent the camera from filming in a shaky, unsteady manner.

Estabilize a camera com um tripé. Se não tiver um tripé, então coloque-a em cima de uma superfície estável. Se não for possível, então encoste-se a uma parede para estabilizar o corpo e evitar que a camera registe de maneira tremida e instável.

Provide visual reference points for comparison. This includes the horizon, treetops, lampposts, houses, and geographical landmarks (i.e., Horsetooth Reservoir, Mt. Adams, etc.) Provide this in the video whenever is appropriate and doesn’t detract from what your focus is, the UFO.

Forneça pontos visuais de referência para comparação. Isso inclui o horizonte, cimo das árvores, postes de iluminação, pontos de referência geográficos (como o Reservatório de Horsetooth, Mone Adams, etc) Forneça esses pontos no vídeo sempre que for apropriado e não se distraia do que é o seu foco, o UFO/a Nave.

Narrate your videotape. Provide details of the date, time, location, and direction (N,S,E,W) you are looking in. Provide your observations on the weather, including approximate temperature, windspeed, any visible cloud cover or noticeable weather anomalies or events. Narrate on the shape, size, color, movements, approximate altitude of the UFO, etc and what it appears to be doing. Also include any unusual physical, psychological or emotional sensations you might have. Narrate any visual reference points on camera so they correlate with what the viewer will see, and thereby will be better able to understand.

Faça a narração do vídeo. Forneça pormenores sobre a data, hora, local e direcção (Norte, Sul, Este, Oeste) que está a observar. Faça observações sobre as condições atmosféricas, incluindo a temperatura aproximada, velocidade do vento, quantidade de nuvens, anomalias ou acontecimentos meteorológicos evidentes. Descreva a forma, o tamanho, a cor, os movimentos, a altitude aproximada onde se encontra o UFO/nave, etc e o que aparenta estar a fazer. Inclua também quaisquer aspectos pouco habituais de sensações físicas, psicológicas ou emocionais que possa ter. Faça a narração de todos os pontos de referência visual que o espectador irá ver e que, deste modo, será capaz de compreender melhor.

Be persistent and consistent. Return to the scene to videotape and record at this same location. If you have been successful once, the UFO sightings may be occurring in this region regularly, perhaps for specific reasons unknown, and you may be successful again. You may also wish to return to the same location at a different time of day (daylight hours) for better orientation and reference. Film just a minute or two under “normal” circumstances for comparison. Write down what you remember immediately after. As soon as you are done recording the experience/event, immediately write down your impressions, memories, thoughts, emotions, etc. so it is on the record in writing. If there were other witnesses, have them independently record their own impressions, thoughts, etc. Include in this exercise any drawings, sketches, or diagrams. Make sure you date and sign your documentation.

Seja persistente e não contraditório. Volte ao local da cena e registe o mesmo local. Se foi bem sucedido uma vez, pode ser que nessa região ocorram avistamentos de UFOs/naves com regularidade, talvez por razões específicas desconhecidas, e talvez possa ser novamente bem sucedido. Pode também desejar voltar ao mesmo lugar a horas diferentes do dia (durante as horas de luz)para ter uma orientação e referência melhor. Filme apenas um ,inuto ou dois em circunstâncias “normais” para ter um termo de comparação. Escreva tudo o que viu imediatamente após o acontecimento. Logo após ter feito o registo da experiência/acontecimento, escreva imediatamente as impressões, memórias, pensamentos, emoções, etc para que fiquem registadas por escrito. Se houver outras testemunhas, peça-lhes para registar independentemente as suas próprias impressões, pensamentos, etc. Inclua quaisquer desenhos, esbolos, diagramas. Certifique-se que data e assina o seu documento/testemunho.

Always be prepared. Have a digital camera or better yet a video camera with you, charged and ready to go, at all times. Make sure you know how to use your camera (and your cell phone video/photo camera) quickly and properly. These events can occur suddenly, unexpectedly, and often quite randomly, so you will need to be prepared.

Esteja sempre preparado, Tenha sempre uma camera digital, melhor ainda, uma camera vídeo consigo, carregada e pronta a usar sempre que necessário. Certifique-se que sabe como lidar com a sua camera (ou com o seu celular/camera fotográfica) rápida e adequadamente. Esses acontecimentos podem acontecer súbita e inesperadamente e, por vezes, acidentalmente, por isso, necessita estar preparado.

Look up. Be prepared. Report. Share.

Olhe para cima, Esteja preparado, Relate, Partilhe.



Pf., clique no símbolo do YouTube e depois no quadrado pequeno, em baixo, ao lado direito para obter as legendas CC, e escolha PORTUGUÊS

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What time is Around the World?


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