Dear Friends,
Click the link to access the links.
http://notrickszone.com/2010/12/28/global-cooling-consensus-is-heating-up-cooling-over-the-next-1-to-3-decades/
Be Well.
David
Global Cooling Consensus Is Heating Up – Cooling Over The Next 1 To 3 Decades
As winters get harsher and the snow piles up, more and more scientists are now warning of global cooling. Reader Matt Vooro has compiled a list (see below) of 31 prominent scientists and researchers who have words that governments ought to start heeding.
Cooling seems to be the trend. Photo source: NOAA.
Lately, the clueless among warmist scientists, governments and the MSM have been running around in deep snow with their global warming blinders on, denying the cold around them. Governments, entrusted to serve the citizens, really ought to start listening up and planning accordingly.
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Are we headed for global warming or cooling?
By Matt Vooro
For many years now a good number of non-AGW scientists, meteorologists, engineers, researchers and the like have looked at the possibilities of a cooling planet. I enclose some of the ones that I have noted in my research. Indeed there is a significant number of scientists, academics, meteorologists and researchers who disagree with IPCC’s belief that the globe is very likely headed for unprecedented global warming due to man-made greenhouse gases.
The climate of this planet oscillates between periods of approximately 30 years of warming followed by approximately 30 years of cooling. Rather than 100 years of unprecedented global warming as predicted by IPCC, the global temperatures have leveled off and we seem to be heading for cooler weather.
Lawrence Solomon in his article of 16 June, 2010 in the Toronto National Post commented on Professor Mike Hulme’s article about IPCC. The article can be found here at probeinternational.org. Hulme is a Professor of Climate Change in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia – the university of Climategate fame — is the founding Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and one of the UK’s most prominent climate scientists. Quoting Hulme, Solomon said:
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change misled the press and public into believing that thousands of scientists backed its claims on manmade global warming, according to Mike Hulme, a prominent climate scientist and IPCC insider. The actual number of scientists who backed that claim was “only a few dozen experts” he states in a paper for Progress in Physical Geography, co-authored with student Martin Mahony.”
Professor Hulme’s paper can be found at fabiusmaximus
It would appear that IPCC underestimated the repetitive and significant impact of normal planetary cycles like the PDO, AO, AMO, NAO, ENSO, DEEP OCEAN CURRENTS [MOC], SOLAR CYCLES and UNEXPECTED PERIODS OF VOLCANIC ASH.
This is understandable as IPCC never had a mandate to study all causes of global warming but only the man induced component which seems to be dwarfed by natural planetary factors, which other scientists are now finding out. Read papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.
Here is a list of 31 different international climate scientists, academics, meteorologists, climate researchers and engineers who have researched this topic and who disagree with AGW science and IPCC forecasts, and are projecting much cooler weather for the next 1-3 decades.
The List
1. Don Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Geology, Western Washington University.
Setting up of the PDO cold phase assures global cooling for next approx. 30 years. Global warming is over. Expect 30 years of global cooling, perhaps severe 2-5°F.”
He predicts several possible cooling scenarios: The first is similar to 1945-1977 trends, the second is similar to 1880-1915 trends and the third is similar to 1790-1820 trends. His latest article states:
Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been.”
2. Syun Akasofu, Professor of Geophysics, Emeritus, University of Alaska, also founding director of ARC
He predicts the current pattern of temperature increase of 0.5C /100 years resulting from natural causes will continue with alternating cooling as well as warming phases. He shows cooling for the next cycle until about 2030/ 2040.
And again a new paper ON THE RECOVERY FROM LITTLE ICE AGE - Read here.
3. Prof. Mojib Latif, Professor, Kiel University, Germany
He makes a prediction for one decade only, namely the next decade [2009-2019] and he basically shows the global average temperatures will decline to a range of about 14.18 C to 14.28 C from 14.39 C [eyeballing his graphs].
He also said that “you may well enter a decade or two of cooling relative to the present temperature level”, however he did not indicate when any two decades of cooling would happen or whether the second decade after the next decade will also be cooling. Read here and here.
4. Dr. Noel Keenlyside from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University. The BBC writes:
The Earth’s temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.”
A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.”
Read here news.bbc.
5. Professor Anastasios Tsonis, Head of Atmospheric Sciences Group University of Wisconsin, and Dr. Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. msnbc writes:
We have such a change now and can therefore expect 20 -30 years of cooler temperatures”
This is nothing like anything we’ve seen since 1950,”
Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. “Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn’t have one.”
Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years.”
Also read The mini ice age starts here at dailymail.co.uk/.
6. William M Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University
A weak global cooling began from the mid-1940’s and lasted until mid-1970’s. I predict this is what we will see in the next few decades.”
Read colostate.edu.
7. Henrik Svensmark , Professor DTU, Copenhagen. Henrik Svensmark writes:
Indeed, global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth, on the contrary. This means that projections of future climate is unpredictable.”
8. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, D.Sc., AboAkademi University, Finland
Therefore, prolonged low solar activity periods in the future may cause the domination of a strongly negative AO and extremely cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia.”
9. Dr. Alexander Frolov, Head of Russia’s state meteorological service Rosgidromet. The Daily Mail.co.uk quotes Frolov:
‘From the scientific point of view, in terms of large scale climate cycles, we are in a period of cooling.
‘The last three years of low temperatures in Siberia, the Arctic and number of Russia mountainous regions prove that, as does the recovery of ice in the Arctic Ocean and the absence of warming signs in Siberia.”
And writes:
Mr. Tishkov, deputy head of the Geography Institute at Russian Academy of Science, said: ‘What we have been watching recently is comparatively fast changes of climate to warming, but within the framework of an overall long-term period of cooling. This is a proven scientific fact’.”
10. Mike Lockwood, Professor of Space Environmental Physics, University of Reading, UK. Read BBC News here:
The UK and continental Europe could be gripped by more frequent cold winters in the future as a result of low solar activity, say researchers.”
11. Dr. Oleg Pokrovsky, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory: Ria Novosti writes:
There isn’t going to be an ice age, but temperatures will drop to levels last seen in the 1950s and 1960s.
Right now all components of the climate system are entering a negative phase. The cooling will reach it’s peak in 15 years. Politicians who have geared up for warming are sitting on the wrong horse.
The Northeast Passage will freeze over and will be passable only with icebreakers.”
Pokrovsky also claims that the IPCC, which has prophesized global warming, has ignored many factors. He also noted that most American weather stations are located in cities where temperatures are always higher.
We don’t know everything that’s happening. The climate system is very complex and the IPCC is not the final truth on the matter.”
12. Girma Orssengo, b.Tech, MASc, PhD
These cool and warm PDO regimes correlate well with the cooling and warming phases of GMTA shown in Figure 3.
The model in Figure 3 predicts global cooling until 2030. This result is also supported by shifts in PDO that occurred at the end of the last century, which is expected to result in global cooling until about 2030 [7].”
In this article, a mathematical model was developed that agrees with observed Global Mean Temperature Anomaly(GMTA), and its prediction shows global cooling by about 0.42 deg C until 2030. Also, comparison of observed increase in human emission of CO2 with increase in GMTA during the 20th century shows no relationship between the two. As a result, the claim by the IPCC of climate catastrophe is not supported by the data.”
‘Fossil fuels allowed man to live his life as a proud human, but the IPCC asserts its use causes catastrophic.’ “
13. Nicola Scafetta, PhD.
Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications
The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030-2040.”
14. Dr William Livingston, astronomer & solar physicist; and 15. Dr Matthew Penn – astronomer & solar physicist
Astronomers Dr. William Livingston and Dr. Matthew Penn and a large number of solar physicists would say that now the likelihood of the Earth being seized by Maunder Minimum is now greater than the Earth being seized by a period of global warming.”
Read here: http://algorelied.com/?p=2706.
16. Joe d’Aleo – Executive Director of Certified Consultant Meteorologists. Read here: Intellicast.com
Longer term the sun is behaving like it did in the last 1700s and early 1800s, leading many to believe we are likely to experience conditions more like the early 1800s (called the Dalton Minimum) in the next few decades. That was a time of cold and snow. It was the time of Charles Dickens and his novels with snow and cold in London.”
Also see various other articles about Global Cooling under ICE AGE at Ice Cap
17. Harry van Loon, Emeritus at NCAR and CORA, 18. Roland Madden, Senior scientist at NOAA, Deputy Head of Climate analysis, 19. Dave Melita, Head Meteorologist at Melita Weather Associates, and 20. William M Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University
These scientists came to the same conclusions— the global warming trend is done, and a cooling trend is about to kick in.
21. Dr. David Archibald, Australia, environmental scientist:
In this presentation, I will demonstrate that the Sun drives climate, and use that demonstrated relationship to predict the Earth’s climate to 2030. It is a prediction that differs from most in the public domain. It is a prediction of imminent cooling.”
See Warwick Hughes and David Archibald
22. Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, Head of Space Research, Lab of Pulkov Observatory. See iceagenow.com:
In his presentation called The Sun Dictates the Climate, he indicated that there would be an ice age kind of temperatures in the middle of the 21st century. He showed a graph called The forecast of the natural climate change for the nearest 100 years and it showed the globa temperatures dropping by more than 1°C by 2055. According to him, a new ice age could start by 2014.”
And read here.
23. Dr Fred Goldberg, Swedish climate expert. People Daily:
We could have an ice age any time, says Swedish climate expert.”
and read: We could have an ice age any time, says Swedish climate expert
24. Dr. George Kukla, a member of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences and a pioneer in the field of astronomical forcing, Read Ice Age Now:
In the 1970s, leading scientists claimed that the world was threatened by an era of global cooling.
Based on what we’ve learned this decade, says George Kukla, those scientists – and he was among them — had it right. The world is about to enter another Ice Age.”
25. Peter Clark, Professor of Geosciences at OSU: Read iceagenow.com:
Sometime around now, scientists say, the Earth should be changing from a long interglacial period that has lasted the past 10,000 years and shifting back towards conditions that will ultimately lead to another ice age.”
26. James Overland, NOAA. Read physorg.com:
‘Cold and snowy winters will be the rule rather than the exception,’ said James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”
27. Dr. Theodore Landscheidt. Predicted in 2003 that the current cooling would continue until 2030 [Read here]:
Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8°C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”
28. Matt Vooro, P. Eng. The icecap.us:
We seem to be in the same climate cycle that we were back in 1964-1976.The last two winters [2008, 2009] have been very similar to those we had back then with all the extra snow and cold temperatures. Once the extra warming effect of the current 2009/2010 El Nino is finished, watch for colder temperatures to return due to the impact of the negative PDO, AMO, AO, NAO, ENSO/La Nina, major volcanic ash and changing solar cycles.”
Good source of articles and data on global cooling, see: Isthereglobalcooling.com
29. Thomas Globig, Meteorologist, Meteo Media weather service. Read here at WUWT:
‘The expected cold for the next month will bring this down significantly by year end. ‘The year 2010 will be the coldest for ten years in Germany,’ said Thomas Globig from the weather service Meteo Media talking to wetter.info. And it might even get worse: ‘It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,’ the meteorologist said. Even the Arctic ice could spread further to the south.”
30. Piers Corbyn, Astrophysicist. From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/27/piers-corbyn-goes-global-cooling/
Predicting in November that winter in Europe would be “exceptionally cold and snowy, like Hell frozen over at times,” Corbyn suggested we should sooner prepare for another Ice Age than worry about global warming. Corbyn believed global warming “is complete nonsense, it’s fiction, it comes from a cult ideology. There’s no science in there, no facts to back [it] up.”
31. Dr. Karsten Brandt, Director of donnerwetter.de weather service.
It is even very probable that we will not only experience a very cold winter, but also in the coming 10 years every second winter will be too cold. Only 2 of 10 will be mild.
32. Joe Bastardi – Accuweather meteorologist and hundreds of other meteorologists (i.e. expert forecasters who outperform climatologists hands-down in seasonal forecasting).
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
Other global cooling articles:
John Holdren Ice Age Likely
BBC News
Global Warming Debunked
Star Tribune
nationalpost.com
canadafreepress.com
news.yahoo.com
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You’ve been linked to James Delingpoles blog, er…it was not me!
BTW, great article, lots of reading haven’t finished it yet!
Thanks Matt.
James is one of the good guys…he’s got carte blanche here.
Great list. I’m betting on good old hydrocarbons and nuclear. Landscheidt was the man. Does Corbyn use a Landscheidt approach? I hope he someday opens up his methodology.
Warm winters have been abnormally. Now, this winter is going to be normal!
http://tinyurl.com/3a9ummn
Are 12 and 29 the same person?
You’re right! Fixed.
Let the cooling begin: of all the hotheads that were predicting global warming.
Here’s another interesting thought.
Given that the IPCC is NOT projecting adverse surface temperature scenarios until about 2060 (unless you wish to discard IPCC AR4 findings), all news media articles claiming a current correlation between weather events and AGW impacts should be dismissed as fiction.
Scenarios: 2010-2030. Part I
by Judith Curry
http://judithcurry.com/2010/12/23/scenarios-2010-2030-part-i/
“The IPCC AR4 projected a near term global average temperature increase of 0.2C per decade. Further, the AR4 showed an insensitivity of global average surface temperature to emission scenarios prior to about 2060.”
I made a brief survey of cooling in Asia, same pattern as in the northern hemisphere — China, Japan, S. Korea, HK, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, India,
http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/12/global-warming-hits-asia.html
6 and 20 are the same guy
I really don’t see on which theory the 10 year predictions are based.
We have the negative PDO and upcoming negative AMO at our hands now and at least two weak solar cycles.
That’s good for thirty years of cooling at least.
Maybe more!
Add retired geologist Fred Sauers to your list.
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Ice_Age.html
And
Physicist Vladimir Paar
http://www.croatiantimes.com/news/General_News/2010-02-10/8836/Croat_scientist_warns_ice_age_could_start_in_five_years
And
Astronomer Emeritus Prof. Kees de Jager
http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/2010-Variable-solar-dynamo3.pdf
For all papers from Prof. Cees de Jager
http://www.cdejager.com/sun-earth-publications/
There is some evidence of global cooling not just in theory but also in the field as well.
PDO has gone negative and cooling since Sept ember 2007
AMO has peaked and has started its decline again since July 2010. It is anticipated to go negative or cooling by 2015?
SOI has been high positive [around +20] since July [predicts cold weather 5-7 months later]
AO and NAO are now more frequently at higher negative levels [AO had record monthly low of -4.266 in Feb 2010 and nearly -5 in DECEMBER 2010]
Solar activity continues low at near minimum levels
Most Global mean temperature anomaly data sets show recent dropping anomalies in 2010
Ocean SST’S are dropping
Ocean heat content rise has leveled off for the last 6 years [major decline in the North Atlantic Ocean heat content]
Europe and Asia have had three cold winters in a row [new low record colds set 2010 in many regions]
European annual temperature anomalies [land] have been dropping since 2007
UK [CET] annual temperatures have been dropping since 2006[4years]
UK Winter temperatures have been dropping since 2007[4 years]. Last two winters were record cold in UK
North American annual temperatures have been cooling since 2006
Canadian winters have been cooling since 2001[El Nino winter excluded]
US had one of its worst winters in 2010
2010 had the 2nd most snow extent for Northern Hemisphere since the1978/1979 winter
No global warming for a decade now since 2001 per hadcrut3gl
No statistically significant global warming since 1995 [per Prof Jones CRU]
La NINA cooling for the next 1-2 years?
Nino3.4 SST anomaly [-1.5 C]
IPCC (Chapter 14, 14.2.2.2, Working Group 1, The Scientific Basis)
Third Assessment Report:
“In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
No 30 and 31 contain some of the same text, exactly.
Thanks! Fixed.
Great stuff guys,
when some denialist will point out than no one is arguing that there is no Global Warming, I will have have a list of idiots to point them to. And by the way I am certain that you are misrepresenting the position of most of the researches in this list, so please take a look at one that you can verify:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming
The new IPCC Scare:
Rising CO2 levels (which act as a plant fertilizer) lead to accelerated plant growth and consequentially increased evapo-transpiraton. The resulting humidity translates into more cloud cover which blocks solar radiation causing global cooling. So we still need a CO2 tax ……………. to prevent global cooling
[...] reason I mention this is because they are warming up for another round of ice age mania. See that here. From now on I will try to give you the conservative view of everything because of that thing where [...]
count me in too. Previewed triple crown of cooling on national TV 3 years ago and have been using it on all climate related interviews now
Sorry guys, most of this is just misinformation or wishful thinking. Go look at the stats – the planet is STILL warming, despite a quiet sun and strong La Nina. Oh, and by the way, Corbyn is no expert in either weather or climate. When are you guys going to get real? A couple of colder winters in parts of the northern hemisphere mean very little unless you are desperately searching for support for a sceptical stance on AGW.
The moment the Met Office employees bet their own private money on their own long range forecasts AND make a profit i will be tempted to consider the possibility that the Met Office MIGHT know more about weather/climate than Corbyn.
Until then, i am convinced that they, and the rest of the GCM modelers, are not capable of predicting future events beyond a time horizon of four days.
Piers Corbyn, Weather Action
You Can’t Say I Didn’t Warn You
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/31524
The 2009 report titled “Climate Change Reconsidered” by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change effectively exposed huge volcanic size craters in the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report. The IPCC’s Summary for Policy Makers was therefore biased, flawed, misleading, unscientific, politically motivated and was intentionally corrupted.
“Climate Change Reconsidered” also demonstrated why that infamous statement… “the science is settled” was the most absurd unscientific overstatement ever made.
If “the science is settled”, as the global warming alarmists would have everyone believe, then how do they explain why there are so many eminent scientists that do not subscribe to the IPCC’s mantra?
Peter, did anything in that sentence strike you as being a little odd?